Contribution à un article collectif publié sur « The Conversation » le 2/02/ 16 et intitulé : « Iowa caucus: scholars around the globe react ».

In France, we see Cruz’s victory in the Iowa caucuses as an expression of American conservatism. He represents an evangelist, patriarchal, white conception of the U.S.

Perhaps more than ever, identity has become a major focus of the contemporary GOP. Many Republicans seem reluctant to acknowledge inevitable demographic, ethnic and religious change. The question for November becomes: How can Cruz convince minorities and women to vote for him, especially when Hillary Clinton (and Bernie Sanders, though to a lesser extent) has deliberately chosen to talk about racial discrimination and racism?

Marco Rubio is last night’s other winner. Now that Jeb Bush seems to be totally out of the running, Rubio is the mainstream candidate the Republican party is bound to support. His positions on immigration and education, notably, will appeal to fiscal conservatives. During 2014 midterm election, the Republican establishment succeeded in neutralizing radical – especially Tea Party – candidates, which paved the way for a victory in the Senate. During this election cycle, while they are likely to get rid of Trump, Cruz may be a big problem for them.

As for the Democrats, Clinton remains the favorite despite her tight victory in Iowa. During the caucuses, Sanders benefited from a national wave of popularity, notably from the youth and people who are done with politicians from the establishment. Going forward, the race will become more difficult for him as Clinton tailors her proposals to draw in young voters.

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